I’m not one to taunt El Niño, especially in a season where forecasters have consistently predicted a strong showing, but two months of below-average rainfall have brought to mind the old lady from the 1980s Wendy’s commercial who asks, “Where’s the beef?”

February was textbook with a capital T for Russell, which almost nailed its average exactly (It hit just .04 inches above its 4.14 average.) Hartwell and Thurmond fell slightly short, collecting 4.58 inches (4.96 average) and 3.69 inches (4.3 average), respectively.

Looking back to the same month during the last two very strong El Niños, Hartwell, Russell and Thurmond received 7.8, 7.4 and 6.9 inches (’97-98), and 6.1, 5.8 and 5.2 inches (’82-83), respectively.

So perhaps this El Niño wasn’t as strong as it initially appeared or the precipitation will come later.

While the Water Resources Outlook for the Southeast hasn’t been released for February, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center published a report three weeks ago stating that El Niño will continue to weaken in the spring but there’s still a good chance for above average precipitation and below-average temperatures in our region.

In addition, even though March is historically the wettest month for the basin, the last time the sub-basins exceeded their March average was five years ago.

When taken together, you’d think there would be even more reason for this very strong El Niño to deliver a wetter than average March.

Perhaps he’s still holding out, or maybe he just needs a little taunting.

~ Jeremy S. Buddemeier, Corporate Communications Office

– See more at: http://balancingthebasin.armylive.dodlive.mil/2016/03/03/a-tale-of-the-toothless-el-nino/#more-2303

For all the hubbub this year’s strong El Niño has generated among forecasters, January’s precipitation, which delivered about 80% of the average at each sub-basin, felt more underwhelming than the numbers suggest.

It’s like when LeBron James only scores 20 points.

Hartwell posted a respectable 4.55 inches (5.23 in. average), while Russell and Thurmond fell about an inch short of their January averages (3.28 vs. 4.34, and 3.22 vs. 4.34, respectively).

In addition, for the past three years the whole basin has fallen short of its January average (Thurmond’s sub-par streak actually goes back six years).

However, in light of December’s record-setting rainfall across the basin, perhaps January’s 80% is more than enough, especially when a larger percentage of that precipitation actually reaches the reservoirs in the winter compared to the summer because of lower rates of evapotranspiration.

Today, as a storm moved east across Georgia the sub-basins got a solid jumpstart on February’s precipitation: Hartwell, 1.87 inches; Russell, 1.92; and Thurmond, 1.47.

In their Jan. 21 “Water Resources Outlook” NOAA forecasters said there’s still a lot of winter and early spring left, and that we won’t be out of the wetter-than-average-conditions woods until April.

NOAA even predicted small bits of respite between larger swaths of rainfall, which should provide residents along the Savannah River Basin (and water managers) some time to regroup.

Still, the situation seems all too Chicken Little: Forecasters have been saying the sky will be falling for so long that you almost start to root for the rain, and feel let down when it doesn’t arrive or takes too long.

However, El Niño’s behavior hasn’t really strayed from forecasters’ predictions since October, and perhaps this isn’t the last we’ll see of this kid.

~ Jeremy S. Buddemeier, Corporate Communications Office

– See more at: http://balancingthebasin.armylive.dodlive.mil/2016/02/03/high-praise-for-below-average-performance/#more-2287